Palantir’s dominance in US and NATO procurement
Palantir’s Maven Smart System provides the targeting backbone for US combatant commands. Deputy Secretary Steve Feinberg signed the directive on March 9, 2026, which moved Maven from an experimental program to a permanent program of record. This change ensures dedicated budget lines and institutional protection from the annual budget cycle. I view this designation as the definitive moment for Palantir’s military standing. During Operation Epic Fury, the system enabled the targeting of over 1,000 Iranian sites within the first 24 hours. The system’s AI Asset Tasking Recommender is a tool that proposes which specific munitions and bombers to assign to targets at speeds that the Department of Defense has never achieved through traditional manual processes.
Palantir’s US government revenue reached $570 million in the fourth quarter, a 66% jump. Total sales reached $1.41 billion, exceeding the $1.33 billion analysts expected. The company secured a $10 billion, 10-year contract with the US Army in August 2025 to consolidate existing software agreements into a single enterprise framework. This agreement follows a $795 million investment earlier in the year to enhance the Army’s Maven Smart System. In May 2025, the Pentagon increased the Maven contract ceiling to $1.3 billion. The user base for Maven quadrupled between March 2024 and mid-2025, reaching over 20,000 active users across 35 military software tools. NATO also adopted Maven, with the NCIA finalizing a contract in March 2025 and completing deployment across Allied Command Operations by August 2025. Palantir’s stock has risen 1,700% over the past three years, pushing its market value toward $360 billion.
Helsing’s expansion in European airspace
Helsing and Saab Germany signed a contract worth triple-digit million euros to integrate AI into the Eurofighter electronic warfare system. This integration places Helsing’s Cirra software within the Saab Arexis sensor suite. Cirra uses deep learning algorithms to classify unfamiliar radar emitters and characterize their behavior during flight. This capability supports the Luftwaffe’s effort to expand data-sharing across combat aircraft. I find the recent successful test flights of the Centaur AI agent in a Saab Gripen E fighter jet to be a more direct demonstration of this tech. During these flights, Centaur autonomously executed complex maneuvers in a beyond visual range combat environment and cued the pilot to fire.
| Capability | Helsing Cirra | Palantir Maven |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Function | Electronic Warfare/Radar Classification | Command, Control, and Targeting |
| Core Integration | Saab Arexis Sensor Suite | US Combatant Command Infrastructure |
| Deployment Status | Integration Phase (Eurofighter) | Permanent Program of Record |
Helsing’s expansion continues beyond air combat. The company acquired Barcelona-based Keybotic to add ground-based autonomous inspection capabilities to its portfolio. Keybotic builds four-legged robots like the Keyper, which won the DARPA Robotics Challenge. This acquisition complements Helsing’s existing assets, including the HX-2 loitering munition and the SG-1 Fathom subsea glider. Helsing’s first resilience factory in southern Germany produces 450 HX-2 units monthly, with a capacity to surge to 2,500 units. The Bundeswehr estimates a need for 120,000 HX-2s to sustain 60 days of high-intensity conflict, plus 80,000 to buffer against losses from air or missile strikes. The contract for the HX-2 loitering munition is a significant part of the German defense strategy to modernize its military doctrine through advanced, AI-driven autonomous systems that can operate effectively in contested, high-risk, GPS-denied environments. Germany awarded €900 million in drone contracts to Helsing, Stark, and Rheinmetall.
The fight for the $13.4B AI budget
The Department of Defense allocated $13.4 billion specifically for AI in the FY2026 budget. This budget prioritizes aerial autonomous systems at $9.4 billion and maritime autonomy at $1.7 billion. The $1.8 billion allocated for autonomous unmanned systems is a 24% increase compared to the previous fiscal year. Palantir’s software-first model challenges traditional contractors like Lockheed Martin or RTX Corporation. While these incumbents integrate AI, Palantir’s rapid deployment capabilities and focus on software-defined systems create a different competitive pressure. I see the massive spending on autonomous unmanned systems as the main arena where Helsing and Palantir will clash.
You should watch how the 30-day deployment mandate for new commercial AI models affects these long-term contracts. The January 9, 2026, mandate requires the latest commercial models to reach military users within 30 days of public release. This rule makes any contract locking in a specific version of an AI model structurally non-compliant. Palantir’s AIP platform aims to manage this by providing an integrated operating system for large language models. I find the market’s focus on hardware-heavy models misplaced given the shift toward software. The HX-2 loitering munition, developed by Helsing, can identify and strike targets without a continuous signal, designed specifically for the contested electronic spectrum of modern warfare. Does the Pentagon’s push for software-defined systems ultimately favor the agile startups over the established hardware giants?
